The Effect of Strict State Measures on the Epidemiologic Curve of Covid-19 Infection in the Context of a Developing Country: A Simulation From Jordan

01.Jul.2020

​Background: COVID-19 has posed an unprecedented global public health threat and caused a significant number of severe cases that necessitated long hospitalization and overwhelmed the health services in most affected countries. In response, the governments initiated a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that led to severe economic and social impacts. The effect of these intervention measures on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are not well investigated within developing countries settings. This study simulated the trajectories of COVID-19 epidemic curve Jordan and assessed the effect of Jordan’s strict NPI measures on the spread of COVID-19. Methods: A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was utilized. The compartments in the proposed model categorized Jordan population into six deterministic compartments; Suspected, Exposed, Infectious Pre-symptomatic, Infectious with Mild Symptoms, Infectious with Moderate to Severe Symptoms, and Recovered. GLEAMviz client simulator was used to run the simulation model. Epidemic curves were plotted for estimated COVID-19 cases in the simulation model, and compared against the reported cases. Results: The simulation model estimated the highest number of total daily new COVID-19 cases, in the pre-symptomatic compartmental state, to be 65 cases, with an epidemic curve growing to its peak in 49 days and terminating in a duration of 83 days, and a total number of simulated cumulative case count of 1,048 cases. The curve representing the number of actual reported cases in Jordan showed a good pattern compatibility to that in the mild and moderate to severe compartmental states. Reproduction number under the NPIs was reduced from 5.6 to less than one. Conclusion: NPIs in Jordan were effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the reproduction rate. Early strict intervention measures showed evidence of containing and suppressing the disease.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342630797_The_Effect_of_Strict_State_Measures_on_the_Epidemiologic_Curve_of_Covid-19_Infection_in_the_Context_of_a_Developing_Country_A_Simulation_From_Jordan​